Sleepers

Murray is usually drafted as a top five fantasy QB, but this year is much different. Kyler tore his ACL in Week 14 last season, adding some uncertainty to his early season outlook. We don’t necessarily expect Kyler to be the same dynamic runner that we’ve seen in his career, and he might not even be cleared for Week 1. That said, we do think Murray can put up QB1 fantasy numbers later in the season when he’s back to full strength. Because of the question marks about his health, we’re seeing him buried in ADP, allowing fantasy players to draft him as a potential QB2 and late season hammer. If you can stash Murray on your IR spot for the first few weeks, you could have a QB1 waiting in the wings. Pairing him with a streaming QB who has a favorable schedule to open the year is a sneaky move.

Cousins is no stranger to finishing inside the top-12 at the position year after year, finishing as a fantasy QB1 in six of his last eight seasons, so why is he considered a sleeper this year? He continues to be drafted later than he should be as fantasy players might be concerned by the looming contract uncertainty. For 2023, we expect plenty of fantasy goodness from Cousins and that Minnesota offense. Last year, Cousins ranked fourth in the NFL in pass attempts and fourth in yards while only Patrick Mahomes threw more passes inside the 20 and 10-yard line. With Justin Jefferson, a 1st Round WR in Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson at his disposal, don’t be surprised to see Cousins crack the top-10 once again in Kevin O’Connell’s pass first offense.

The Saints drafted Miller in Round 3 of the NFL Draft out of TCU. He’s flying a bit under the radar compared to the other backs in this class due to an MCL injury that prevented him from working out in the pre-draft process. Make no mistake about it, Miller is a good running back, he can break tackles with ease and he’s got the prototypical build of an NFL RB. Alvin Kamara is facing a possible suspension, and he turns 28 in July as does Jamaal Williams. That’s the age where we typically see production fall off for veteran RBs, and prior to last year, Williams’ previous season high in carries was 153. If Kamara misses time and the Saints don’t use Williams in a bell cow role, there’s room for Miler to not only have usable weeks early in the season but also emerge as starting RB later in the season.

The Steelers spent significant draft capital on an offensive lineman in Round 1 then got one of the better blocking TEs in Darnell Washington later in the draft. We expect Kenny Pickett to take a step forward in year two, and while that should primarily benefit Najee Harris, it will also benefit his backfield compadre, Jaylen Warren. As a rookie last year, Warren averaged 4.9 yards per attempt and logged the same yards after contact per attempt numbers as Jonathan Taylor and Travis Etienne. He’s an effective back who will go extremely late in drafts. Should the Steelers decide to scale back Najee’s workload or if Harris misses time, Warren would become a plug and play top-15 weekly option. As the unquestioned backup to Najee, throwing Warren on the end of your bench as a late round pick isn’t the worst idea in the world.

The Rams depth chart behind Cooper Kupp is in shambles. They traded Allen Robinson to the Steelers for a bag of peanuts, and are left with Van Jefferson, Tutu Atwell and Ben Skowronek behind Kupp. We fully expect Jefferson to emerge as the WR2 in the Rams offense. Back in 2021 before a lost season for LA, Jefferson played 80% of the snaps and caught 50 passes for 802 yards and six scores. Those are FLEX level numbers for a WR who’s going extremely late in drafts. With Matthew Stafford back under center and a clear path for playing time and targets, there are certainly worse late round WR targets in your draft.

Treylon Burks’ rookie season wasn’t all that impressive, let’s be honest…unless you dive into the underlying metrics. If you do, there’s reason for optimism. He logged a 21.3% targets per route run rate (the same as A.J. Brown as a rookie) and a respectable 1.75 yard per route run (the same as Jaylen Waddle as a rookie). Expecting a Brown or Waddle type of breakout is probably a bit optimistic, but the good news is Burks is buried in ADP, so the opportunity cost is low. Speaking of opportunity, the depth chart in Tennessee is wide open for Burks to run away with a 25+% target share in year two.

There’s plenty of targets up for grabs in Minnesota with Adam Thielen now in Carolina, and Addison should slide right into that WR2 role across from Justin Jefferson. Minnesota selected the USC WR 23rd overall in the NFL Draft, and he was extremely productive in college. The Vikings were tied for second in neutral situation pass rate a year ago, and Kirk Cousins has shown us he’s more than capable of supporting multiple great fantasy options. Of course, Jefferson will dominate the usage, but defenses are going to have to game plan to try to take him away, leaving Addison with a ton of 1-on-1 looks in year one.

We just mentioned how barren the Tennessee depth chart is when discussing Treylon Burks, but let’s just put some names to it - Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Kyle Philips, Chris Moore and Racey McMath are the competition for targets for Chig behind Burks. Who? Who?! Okonkwo flashed incredible yards after the catch ability in a small sample size last season. He led the position in yards per route run and yards per reception while having as many 20+ yard receptions as Mark Andrews. We fully expect Burks to get the bulk of the targets, but there’s plenty of room for Okonkwo to emerge as the second receiving option in Tennessee.

The hit rate on rookie TEs is abysmal, but what if the Bills view Dalton Kincaid as more of a big slot WR than a traditional TE? In college, Kincaid played in the slot a ton as a move TE, and he was extremely effective. Among NCAA tight ends with 25+ targets in 2022, Kincaid ranked second in both yards per route run (2.42) and yards after the catch, and those are the metrics that have previously predicted fantasy success at the TE position. Round 1 NFL Draft capital and being tied to Josh Allen isn’t the worst thing either.