Busts

Whoa whoa whoa. Before you get all worked up, we love Richardson’s dynasty outlook and his landing spot in Indianapolis. But he’s going as a top-10 QB already in BestBall with some major concerns about his efficiency as a passer in Year 1. While his rushing upside is clear, only one rookie QB (Andrew Luck) over the last decade finished as a top-12 while throwing sub 60 percent. There might be some hiccups at the beginning of the year so while we’re totally in on him long-term, we consider him more of a QB2 in 2023. If he doesn’t receive the same hype in your 1QB home leagues, you can still take him as a late round guy.

We have to rethink what this Cowboys offense is in 2023. The offensive coordinator change to Brian Schottenheimer forms a high-T tag team wrestling combo with head coach Mike McCarthy where the objective seems crystal clear: run the dang ball. While Prescott can finish as a top-12 QB again, would you be happy with him finishing as QB11 or 12? He’s quietly increased his turnover rate while his yards per attempt decreased for three straight years. If the Cowboys are committed to running the ball, Dak feels like a safe but low upside option at QB. We take a “swing for the fences” approach to start the year and Dak is just a singles and doubles guy, if we can let baseball metaphors apply.

Once the pinnacle of fantasy football efficiency, it’s tough envisioning Kamara returning to his RB1 ways at this stage in his career. With his looming legal troubles and the additions of free agent Jamaal Williams and intriguing third round pick Kendre Miller, this is a crowded backfield to sort out. We’ll get more clarity once Kamara’s suspension surfaces but for those thinking they get a major discount at draft time, we disagree. He’s a bench clogger that is being drafted as a top-30 RB only because of his name. Let someone else in your league try to figure out the situation of a soon-to-be 28-year-old RB with declining yards per touch marks with a new QB.

We love Javonte the player but our research shows RBs in Year 1 after ACL injuries usually recover much slower than fantasy managers realize. Think of how J.K. Dobbins never truly looked like himself last year returning from his injury. Samaje Perine should begin the season as the starter as Javonte eventually is worked in but it wouldn’t be surprising if he begins the season on the PUP. He’s still a shiny toy and an enticing name for those who want to shoot for the moon but you might be left waiting all of 2023 for him to truly be himself. In 2024, we will probably in again but we consider a bust at his current ADP.

At this point, we know what D.J. Moore is for fantasy. He’s a solid WR2 with all the talent in the world but never has put it fully together to reach top-12 status. While the move to Chicago with Justin Fields might be exciting, the reality might be that this is still a net neutral outcome for him. While Moore ranked sixth in deep targets among WRs in 2022, Fields struggled mightily in that category finishing 28th in adjusted deep completion percentage. Last year, Bears WRs averaged 18 total fantasy points per game… as a unit. In Fields starts, Bears WRs totaled just two weeks (Dante Pettis in Week 6 & Darnell Mooney in Week 9) of over 12 fantasy points! People are expecting more from D.J. likening this to A.J. Brown and Jalen Hurts’ connection in Philadelphia. We caution managers to slow down and accept what he is: a good, not great fantasy WR.

How old is OBJ? It says he’s playing this year at age 30 but it feels like he’s aged even further in our minds. He hasn’t been a top 12 WR since 2016, nor caught more than 56 % of his targets since 2018. It’s been a while folks especially after sitting out all of 2022 recovering from his ACL injury. The Ravens felt comfortable throwing $15 million his way but it’s hard penciling him in as anything more than the 3rd target in this offense. Mark Andrews is still the target dominator and a healthy Rashod Bateman with do-it-all 1st round rookie Zay Flowers should also eat a large part of the passing pie. Lamar Jackson and this new offense under Todd Monken could increase the passing volume immensely but we’re not betting on OBJ returning to even the top-36 WRs. Let someone else in your league scream with excitement that they got OBJ before you remind them he’s finished outside the top-24 weekly WRs almost 80 percent of the time since 2020.