No NFL player outperformed expectations more last year than Geno Smith. Everyone wrote him off and many made fun of the Seahawks for trading away Russell Wilson and rolling with Geno and Drew Lock. Well, well, well who’s laughing now? Geno was awesome last season, leading the NFL in completion rate while throwing for over 4,200 yards. Seattle rewarded him with a new three-year deal and a Round 1 WR in Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Smith looks primed for fantasy success yet again in 2023.

Lawrence is coming off an impressive second season in the NFL in which he threw for over 4,000 yards and 25 TD en route to a QB8 finish. Can he go even higher in 2023? He’s in his second year in Doug Pederson’s system, and this loaded Jaguars offense added Calvin Ridley via trade and bolstered the offensive line with a tackle in Round 1. Don’t tell your leaguemates, but Lawrence is actually a candidate for positive regression in the TD department after posting just a 4.3% TD rate last season. That ranked 18th in the NFL yet Lawrence was seventh in the NFL in pass attempts a year ago. If that passing volume sticks this season, T Law is in line to throw 30+ TDs and potentially make the leap into the top 5 at the position.

The Falcons team invested the 8th overall pick in the rookie out of Texas. Going back to 2015, RBs selected in Round 1 of the NFL Draft have averaged 18 touches per game. You give a guy with this much talent that sort of workload behind an offensive line that ranked #1 in PFF run block grade last season, and fantasy goodness is bound to happen.

The Lions shocked everyone when they selected Jahmyr Gibbs 12th overall in the NFL Draft. That sort of draft capital tells us they’ve got a specific role in mind for the rookie from Alabama. Gibbs has that pass catching profile we look for, and this Lions WR depth chart…well it ain’t pretty, folks. Jameson Williams is suspended for the first six weeks, and they’ve got a bunch of journeymen behind Amon-Ra St. Brown to go along with a rookie TE. The runway is clear for Gibbs to join Saquon Barkley and CMC as the only age 21 rookie RBs over the last decade to catch 50+ passes. He gets an obvious boost in full PPR leagues.

Sanders capitalized on an excellent 2022 season with Philadelphia, earning the biggest contract among all free agent RBs in 2023, signing a 4-year deal with Carolina. The Panthers were excellent running the football last season, and now they return all five starters on the offensive line. Sanders reunites with his old RB coach, Duce Staley, who was with Philly when Sanders was drafted in 2019. That season, Sanders caught 50 passes, the most of his career thus far. We fully expect more opportunities through the air for Sanders this year in Carolina after Eagle QBs targeted the RB position at the lowest rate in the league last season.

Dotson! We got Dotson here! The Commanders used the 16th overall pick on the former Penn Stater. As a rookie, it was an up and down season, but he posted a solid 523 yards and 7 TD stat line in 12 games as the ‘Manders dealt with lackluster QB play all season. WRs entering year two have historically been a gold mine for fantasy, and Dotson should have every opportunity to improve upon the 5.1 targets per game he saw last season. Sure, Sam Howell is a major question mark, but Dotson is going late enough in drafts that you can snag him as your WR3 or WR4.

Fantasy players are probably getting tired of the whole Jerry Jeudy thing, aren’t they? We’ve talked ourselves into Jeudy for a couple of years now and it hasn’t quite worked out…yet. Everything in Jeudy’s profile screams breakout. He’s still just 24 years old, he’s a former 1st Round NFL Draft pick, and among WRs who saw 50+ targets last year, Jeudy ranked 6th in yards after the catch per reception and 12th in yards per route run. Coming off a season in which Russell Wilson logged an outlier career low 3.3% TD rate, if Russ can just return to league average, Jeudy can surprise in 2023.

Ohhhhh baby. This is a guy we’re all over entering year two in the NFL. Last season as a rookie, the former Buckeye earned a 25% target share and logged a 1.85 yards per route run rate while leading all NFL WRs in missed tackles forced. You probably already know this but those guys throwing the ball last year were a trainwreck. 48 QBs logged 100+ drop backs last season. Zach Wilson ranked 48th in adjusted completion rate, and Mike White ranked 41st. Enter Aaron Rodgers, a future hall of famer. Wilson is set to explode in his second season.

To quote the great Michael Scott, “No question about it, we’re ready to get hurt again.” Pitts was a massive bust last season, but we need to remember how good he was in 2021 as a rookie when he posted a 1,000-yard season. Marcus Mariota was terrible as a passer last year, specifically when targeting Pitts. The Atlanta TE caught just one of his 14 deep targets last season, and among all pass catchers who saw a 25+% target share in 2022, Pitts ranked dead last in catchable target rate. Is Desmond Ridder good? Who knows! But he probably can’t be worse than Mariota, and there aren’t many TEs who can do what Kyle Pitts can do.